New quantitative research tool delivers a six-month default rate estimate for the US leveraged loan market

PitchBook, the leading private capital market intelligence platform, today introduced the PitchBook LCD Default Predictor, a new quantitative research tool that produces a monthly, forward-looking estimate of the aggregate default rate in the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index. The tool gives credit market participants a clearer view of where leveraged loan default rates may trend over the next six months, helping investors move from reactive analysis to proactive portfolio positioning.

As credit markets navigate heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, leveraged loan investors, credit funds, and risk management teams face growing pressure to anticipate default risk before it appears in trailing default rates. The LCD Default Predictor addresses this gap by deploying a regression analysis using pricing signals already embedded in the loan market in conjunction with credit ratings to estimate where default rates are likely headed.

"The tools most widely used to assess default risk in the leveraged loan market are, by nature, backward-looking," said Nizar Tarhuni, EVP of Research and Market Intelligence at PitchBook. "When macro conditions are moving as fast as they are now, that lag is felt. Risk builds in the market well before it shows up in reported data, and that gap has direct consequences for how portfolios are positioned. The Default Predictor gives credit professionals the lead time to act, not just react, and the ability to anticipate risk is becoming a baseline expectation."

The model is grounded in one of the most immediate signals available to credit investors: how individual loans in the index are trading. It analyzes each loan's current price, whether that price is rising or falling, and how it compares to the broader market, alongside the loan's credit rating and any recent rating changes. From there, it estimates the likelihood that each loan will default in the next six months and aggregates those loan-level estimates into an overall market default rate, giving portfolio managers and risk teams a single forward-looking number rather than a collection of lagging indicators. The result is calibrated against historical patterns, reducing noise from extreme pricing spikes during periods of market distress.

Unlike traditional ratings-driven approaches to forecasting default risk, the LCD Default Predictor incorporates real-time loan pricing and price momentum as primary inputs, capturing market-implied stress signals that credit ratings often lag by weeks or months. This makes it a faster-moving, market-sensitive indicator grounded in PitchBook LCD's deep historical leveraged loan dataset.

"Rising credit risk and distressed loans are key concerns for lenders and close monitoring of default expectations is an important step in loss mitigation," said Kenny Tang, Sr. Director, Head of US Credit Research at PitchBook. "The Default Predictor gives investors a six-month window to evaluate whether default risk is building up across the market and help them determine whether to adjust their portfolios accordingly."

The LCD Default Predictor is the latest addition to PitchBook LCD's expanding credit research platform, which over the past year has grown to include US and European Private Credit Monitors, a European dual-track default rate, and an upcoming comprehensive BDC analysis. Together, these tools reflect LCD's continued investment in bringing quantitative rigor and forward-looking intelligence to credit markets – giving participants the data and analysis they need to stay ahead of risk, not just respond to it.

Learn more about Credit Default Predictor and the methodology. For more information on PitchBook's credit suite, visit PitchBook Credit News.

About PitchBook, a Morningstar company As the pulse of private capital markets, PitchBook delivers trusted, real-time data, research, and technology to help investors, dealmakers, and innovators make decisions with confidence. Its products provide comprehensive information on companies, investors, funds, deals, and people, along with tools that help professionals analyze market activity and make informed decisions. Founded in 2007, PitchBook today serves more than 100,000 clients worldwide and is recognized as the leading source of private capital market intelligence. PitchBook has grown to over 3,000 employees across offices in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, London, Singapore, Mumbai, and other global locations. Since 2016, PitchBook has operated as a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.

For more information, visit www.pitchbook.com.

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PitchBook LCD Introduces Default Predictor, a Forward-Looking Leveraged Loan Default Rate Indicator