Post-Easter spending and repayments follow seasonal patterns, but delinquency data suggests most vulnerable customers are falling into further financial difficulty

The latest credit card data analysis by global analytics software leader FICO (NYSE:FICO) highlights a typical decline in spending and increase in payment rates following the Easter period. However, year-on-year analysis shows delinquency rates for accounts with three missed payments have increased 17.1%. With seasonal spending expected to increase over the summer months, in part due to rising fuel prices, FICO urges heightened monitoring of late payments and pre-delinquency intervention strategies by lenders.

Highlights

Average spending decreased by 3.0% month-on-month to £790 and remained virtually flat year-on-year
Average active balances decreased 0.3% month-on-month to £1,945, but remain 4.3% higher year-on-year
The percentage of overall balance paid increased by 4.7% over the previous month, but at 34.1% it remained 4.1% lower than in 2025
The number and balances of accounts with one, two and three missed payments remain higher than May 2025
After the sharp increase seen in April, overlimit accounts decreased by 5.7% in May 2026, to 1.3%, although this remains 1.6% higher than May 2025

FICO Comment:

Following typical post-Easter seasonal patterns and mirroring the decline seen in May 2025, average spend decreased by 3.0% between April and May 2026, to £790. Year-on-year spending remained virtually flat, representing a continued improvement from the persistent declines seen through most of 2025 and suggesting some stabilisation in consumer spending behaviour.

The average active balance decreased marginally in May, offering a modest reprieve from April's return to record highs. However, balances remained 4.3% higher on the previous year, maintaining the structural elevation that has characterised the market throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Looking at missed payments data, May saw a mixed picture across delinquency categories, with a notable improvement in accounts with two missed payments. However, this was offset by continued deterioration for accounts with one and three missed payments. All three delinquency categories remain higher year-on-year, continuing the concerning trend that emerged from the second half of 2025, especially for accounts missing two and three payments.

While average delinquent balances have increased across all three categories, FICO analysis suggests balances for late payments are staying relatively flat when compared with the increases in overall balances. Accounts with one missed payment have seen a marginal 0.5% increase year-on-year; accounts with two missed payments are broadly flat and accounts with three missed payments have actually seen a 3.1% drop, compared to average balance. This suggests the most severely delinquent customers are carrying proportionally lower balances relative to the overall portfolio than at this time last year.

However, with the significant year-on-year increase in accounts with three missed payments, and the likelihood of increased spending over the summer months, risk teams should maintain heightened monitoring of delinquency progression and ensure that pre-delinquency intervention strategies are designed to address the higher balance levels now characteristic of customers in financial difficulty.

Key Trend Indicators – UK Cards May 2026

Metric	Amount	Month-on-Month Change	Year-on-Year Change
Average UK Credit Card Spend	£790	-3.0%	-0.1%
Average Card Balance	£1,945	-0.3%	+4.3%
Percentage of Payments to Balance	34.1%	+4.7%	-4.1%
Accounts with One Missed Payment	1.5%	+8.9%	+3.4%
Accounts with Two Missed Payments	0.3%	-14.9%	+9.4%
Accounts with Three Missed Payments	0.3%	+3.7%	+17.1%
Average Credit Limit	£5,975	+0.2%	+2.1%
Average Overlimit Spend	£100	+2.1%	+4.3%
Cash Sales as a % of Total Sales	0.8%	0.9%	-2.2%

Source: FICO

These card performance figures are part of the data shared with subscribers of the FICO® Benchmark Reporting Service. The data sample comes from client reports generated by the FICO^® TRIAD^® Customer Manager solution in use by some 80% of UK card issuers. For more information on these trends, contact FICO.

About FICO

FICO (NYSE:FICO) powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 200 US and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, insurance, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 80 countries do everything from protecting 4 billion payment cards from fraud, to improving financial inclusion, to increasing supply chain resiliency. The FICO^® Score, used by 90% of top US lenders, is the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the US and has been made available in over 40 other countries, improving risk management, credit access and transparency. Learn more at www.fico.com.

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