Fuel crisis increases pressure on affordability as spending and payments dip, with more customers missing one, two and three payments year-on-year

The latest credit card data analysis by global analytics software leader FICO (NYSE:FICO) reveals clear signs of the impact of the fuel crisis prompted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Spending declined ahead of the Easter period, while payment rates continued to decline, reflecting the structural affordability challenges that have characterised the market since 2025. Concerningly, delinquency rates for customers missing one or two payments have increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with one missed payment in particular echoing the significant spike seen in March 2025.

Highlights

Average spending fell by 6.6% month-on-month, to £740, but experienced a marginal increase of 0.3% year-on-year
The average active balance is 4.3% higher year-on-year
The percentage of overall balance paid decreased 1% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year
The percentage of customers missing one payment rose increased 29.5% month-on-month
The percentage of customers missing two payments rose by 11.3% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year
Average balances of accounts with one, two or three missed payments fell slightly month-on-month but remain higher than in March 2025

FICO Comment:

On-going pressure on personal finances, undoubtedly exacerbated by the fuel crisis pushing up the cost of petrol and diesel, is likely to have contributed to decreased spending in March compared to February, as well as the typical pre-Easter spending patterns. Continuing the modest post-Christmas balance reduction trend seen in recent months, the average active balance decreased by 0.8% month-on-month to £1,925. However, balances remain 4.3% higher year-on-year, maintaining the elevation that has defined the market since early 2025.

Decreasing by 1% month-on-month, the percentage of overall balance paid continued the expected downward seasonal trend, falling to 33%, ahead of the expected summer increase. This figure remains 3.7% lower than the previous year, though it is encouraging to see a continued narrowing of the year-on-year gap compared to the 6-7% declines seen throughout much of 2025. While payment rates remain at low levels, the easing of the year-on-year deterioration may indicate some early signs of stabilisation.

An area of concern for risk teams will, however, be the fact that March saw notable increases across early and mid-stage late payment categories. The sharp 29.5% month-on-month increase in customers missing one payment reflects a recurring pattern of March stress that was also evident in 2025. The 14.3% year-on-year increase in customers with two missed payments is especially notable and warrants careful monitoring to assess whether this represents a seasonal spike or a more sustained deterioration.

All delinquency account categories remain higher year-on-year, representing a concerning shift from the improvements seen at this time last year. The continued moderation in delinquent balance year-on-year growth rates, particularly for two and three missed payments offers some encouragement, though the overall picture remains one of persistent structural stress.

Risk teams should closely monitor the progression of March's one-missed-payment spike into two and three missed payments over the coming months. Collections strategies may need to be calibrated to address the higher balance levels now characteristic of delinquent accounts, particularly as seasonal spending begins to increase in spring and summer.

Key Trend Indicators – UK Cards March 2026

Metric	Amount	Month-on-Month Change	Year-on-Year Change
Average UK Credit Card Spend	£740	-6.6%	+0.3%
Average Card Balance	£1,925	-0.8%	+4.3%
Percentage of Payments to Balance	33.0%	-1.0%	-3.7%
Accounts with One Missed Payment	1.7%	+29.5%	+1.5%
Accounts with Two Missed Payments	0.4%	+11.3%	+14.3%
Accounts with Three Missed Payments	0.2%	-1.0%	+6.8%
Average Credit Limit	£5,950	+0.1%	+2.0%
Average Overlimit Spend	£100	+6.3%	+5.2%
Cash Sales as a % of Total Sales	0.8%	-0.1%	-3.5%

Source: FICO

These card performance figures are part of the data shared with subscribers of the FICO® Benchmark Reporting Service. The data sample comes from client reports generated by the FICO^® TRIAD^® Customer Manager solution in use by some 80% of UK card issuers. For more information on these trends, contact FICO.

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FICO UK Credit Card Market Report: March 2026